AGP Executive Report

Rates and Banks: Weak jobs data eased rate-hike bets, while the RBA governor warned sharper increases may still be needed. The central bank also reported an A$8.5 billion annual loss. Crypto Regulation: ASIC is proposing a A$14 million capital requirement for crypto firms and flagging unresolved offshore key-storage risks. Australia also plans mandatory crypto tax reporting from 2027 and international data sharing by 2028. Small Business Payments: The ATO’s plan to stop accepting credit-card tax payments from December has drawn backlash from businesses over the short notice and loss of a payment option. Household Finances: Some 7.5 million Australians have $21.2 billion in lost or ATO-held super, as annual statements arrive. ING has also closed its Savings Maximiser to new applicants, prompting savers to compare rates.

Lending Awards: Westpac Group was named Bank of the Year at the 2026 Australian Mortgage Awards, with Pepper Money taking Non-Bank of the Year and AFG named Aggregator of the Year. Rates and the RBA: Weak September jobs data has eased expectations of a near-term rate rise, but inflation concerns remain; the RBA has also reported an A$8.5 billion annual loss. Superannuation: The ATO says 7.5 million accounts held A$21.2 billion in lost or ATO-held super at June 30, a reminder for Australians to check for forgotten retirement savings. Crypto Rules: ASIC is seeking tougher exchange requirements ahead of a licensing deadline, including a proposed A$14 million capital threshold and action on offshore custody risks. Household Banking: Savers are being urged to compare bank rates, while mortgage costs remain a key pressure for households.

Rates & Markets: September unemployment climbed to 4.7%, a five-year high, cooling expectations of another near-term rate rise and helping Australian shares recover. The Australian dollar weakened, while RBA Governor Michele Bullock warned that aggressive hikes may still be needed if inflation persists. Savings: With rates up, the best savings accounts offer as much as 5.65%, but some top rates come with conditions savers can easily miss. Private Credit: 360 Capital bought a $31.2 million senior loan tied to Bathla’s Marsden Park project from La Trobe Financial, which recovered its outstanding principal, interest and fees—another sign of lenders managing exposure to the collapsed developer. Crypto Rules: ASIC is seeking a A$14 million capital threshold for crypto platforms and flagged unresolved risks around offshore private-key custody; Australia is also moving toward global crypto tax-data sharing by 2028. Banking Oversight: APRA and New Zealand’s RBNZ completed a joint bank stress test to strengthen trans-Tasman resilience.

Markets & Rates: The ASX 200 climbed 1% to a five-week high on Friday as softer jobs data cooled rate-hike bets; markets cut the chance of a November RBA increase to about 9%, while the Australian dollar weakened. Crypto Regulation: ASIC is proposing tougher rules for crypto exchanges, covering customer-asset protection, trading and financial resources. The framework is due to start in April 2027, with existing firms given time to apply for licences. Banking: Bank of Queensland reported an 88% rise in FY26 profit and kept its dividend at 20 cents a share, lifting its shares. ING, meanwhile, has closed its Savings Maximiser account to new applicants.

Rates and Markets: September employment fell unexpectedly, lifting unemployment to 4.7%—a five-year high—and cooling expectations of another RBA rate rise. The ASX steadied, with bank shares helping offset weakness elsewhere, while futures pointed higher. Bank Results: Bank of Queensland reported an 88% rise in FY26 profit and held its dividend at 20 cents as shares jumped; Bendigo and Adelaide Bank also climbed ahead of its AGM. Crypto Rules: Australia is seeking feedback on rules for crypto platforms due in 2027, including tighter oversight of crypto-settled products after retail traders lost A$458 million. Savings and Resilience: ING’s Savings Maximiser is closed to new applicants as banks compete for deposits. APRA and the RBNZ completed a joint stress test to assess trans-Tasman banks’ resilience.

Rates and Jobs: September employment fell by 39,300 and unemployment held at 4.7%, its highest in five years. Markets now see almost a 90% chance the RBA will hold at 4.6% in November, easing pressure on borrowers. Market Shift: Australian bank shares rallied after the jobs report, helping the ASX recover from early losses, even as a global tech sell-off rattled investors over AI spending and data-centre debt. RBA Finances: The Reserve Bank reported an $11.3 billion loss for 2025–26, its second-largest on record, as rising bond yields hit its portfolio. Bank Networks: APRA figures show ANZ and Suncorp together operated 350 branches and 971 ATMs at June 2026; ANZ’s branch network has shrunk nearly 59% since 2017. Investor Lending: Borrowing for new-build investment properties rose 20% over the past year, while loans for existing homes fell 14%, amid speculation that proposed tax changes are shifting investor demand. AI Funding: The collapse of Firmus’s planned mega-IPO has added to investor caution over the cost and financing risks of Australia’s data-centre boom.

Markets and Rates: Hot US inflation pushed Wall Street lower and left ASX futures pointing down after Australian shares fell 0.6%. Bank and mining stocks weighed on the market, while traders raised bets on another RBA rate rise; the Australian dollar edged higher amid rate-hike speculation. Capital Markets: Firmus withdrew its planned ASX IPO after weak investor demand and is exploring private funding, while Glencore began trading on the Australian market, drawing investor interest in its copper exposure. Banking and Regulation: Banks faced further scrutiny as Commonwealth Bank shareholders gathered for the AGM and the lender declined to guarantee jobs amid AI-related changes. The government is advancing reforms to pursue perpetrators of financial abuse, while ASIC is seeking to extend retail protections to crypto-settled products. Households: Mortgage stress is estimated to affect 450,000 Australian households as rate fears prompt many buyers to delay property decisions.

Rates and Markets: The ASX 200 fell about 0.7% on Wednesday, with all four major banks lower, as hawkish RBA minutes warned inflation could stay high and left another rate rise on the table. The Australian dollar steadied near US69.9¢ ahead of jobs data. Borrowers and Savers: Mortgage stress is reported to affect 450,000 Australian households, while banks are preparing to offer deposit rates above 6% as they compete for savers. Banking and Regulation: Commonwealth Bank plans to cut 1,000 roles but has declined to guarantee jobs against AI. Australia is also moving to close a crypto-derivatives loophole after retail traders lost A$458 million; the ATO has meanwhile delayed its credit-card payment ban until June 2027. Investment: Nvidia-backed Firmus scrapped its planned ASX float after investor demand fell short, adding to scrutiny of AI valuations. Glencore began ASX trading, giving investors another route to copper exposure.

Markets: Australian shares held near flat on Tuesday as bank gains offset weakness in miners and tech, but futures pointed to a 0.5% decline at the next open. CBA was among the stronger stocks. Rates & Mortgages: RBA minutes showed inflation risks remain tilted higher after September’s rate rise to 4.6%, with another hike possible in November. Mortgage stress is mounting: a new estimate puts 450,539 households in major postcodes in negative monthly cash flow, up 21% in a year. Banking: CBA shareholders meet Wednesday amid concern over housing exposure; mortgage applications were down 15% in recent months compared with 2025. Bank of Queensland reports full-year results Thursday. Investment & Regulation: ASIC is moving to bring crypto-settled contracts for difference under retail trading protections. Nvidia-backed data-centre firm Firmus, meanwhile, has abandoned its planned multibillion-dollar ASX float after investor demand fell short, spotlighting the market’s growing caution on AI valuations.

Rates and Markets: RBA minutes showed the board backed a hike to 4.6% and warned inflation could stay too high, increasing the chance of another rise. Australian shares slipped as technology stocks and miners fell, while business confidence dropped for a third month, NAB reported. Tax and Small Business: Proposed trust tax changes could cost holders up to $13.3 billion in restructuring and advice, according to industry estimates, as the ATO steps up enforcement. The government will consult businesses on card-payment rules after backlash over the ATO’s credit-card ban; payments remain available until June 2027. Investment Watch: Nvidia-backed Firmus scrapped its planned $5 billion ASX float after weak demand, while AirTrunk delayed a data-centre REIT listing amid higher rates and market volatility — signs investors are becoming more cautious about AI infrastructure. Borrowers and Banking: Mortgage refinancing and investor demand weakened, with analysts citing APRA serviceability tests as a barrier for borrowers seeking better rates. Banks are also competing for deposits, with some rates set to top 6%.

Market Watch: Australian shares rallied as banks and miners led gains, with the ASX poised for a firmer open. Investor Protection: ASIC is seeking to extend trading safeguards to crypto-settled products, as Bitcoin firm Stormrake says bank restrictions are delaying payments across the sector. Banking Competition: Deposit rates are tipped to top 6% as lenders compete for savers, while the government’s credit-card surcharge changes and the ATO’s decision to keep accepting card payments until June 2027 reshape payment costs. IPO Fallout: AI data-centre firm Firmus scrapped its multibillion-dollar ASX float after weak investor demand, a setback for Australia’s public markets and a warning on AI valuations. Housing Finance: A record 82% of Australian home loans now rely on mortgage brokers, as affordability pressures and shifting property forecasts keep borrowers and lenders on alert.

Banking: Westpac is set to cut 102 jobs under its Catalyst restructuring, prompting the Finance Sector Union to say staff have lost faith in management assurances. Savings: Deposit rates are tipped to top 6% as banks compete for savers. Investment: Stonepeak is testing demand for a listed infrastructure-debt fund targeting returns 3.5–4% above swap rates. Payments: The ATO has delayed its planned credit-card payment ban until June 2027, after backlash from businesses and taxpayers. Markets: Australian shares rose, led by major banks and miners, while Telstra and TPG fell on fears SpaceX could challenge traditional telecom networks. Capital markets: Firmus’s failed $5 billion IPO adds to concerns about investor appetite for large, high-risk listings.

Markets: The ASX is tipped to open higher after Wall Street’s gains, with oil prices and bond yields still in focus. Listings: Glencore hopes its ASX debut will help narrow its valuation gap with BHP, while the collapse of Firmus’s proposed $5bn float has renewed questions about investor appetite for large tech listings. Housing finance: Investor loans fell 9% in the June quarter as rate rises and proposed tax changes cooled demand; Melbourne’s new listings include a growing share of former rentals. Banking and payments: The ATO will keep accepting credit-card tax payments until June 2027 after reversing its planned ban, while banks face calls to restore face-to-face services in regional communities. Inflation: S&P warns the federal government and Reserve Bank are pulling in opposite directions as they try to bring inflation under control.

Housing and Rates: Auction clearance rates stayed below 50% for a second week as the Reserve Bank’s 15-year-high interest rates weighed on buyers. National prices have fallen 5.2% since March, while investor loans for established homes dropped and lending for new builds rose. Budget and Inflation: S&P has warned the federal government and Reserve Bank are pulling in opposite directions on inflation, and flagged risks from structurally high government spending if revenue windfalls fade. IPO and Investor Confidence: Nvidia-backed data-centre firm Firmus abandoned its planned $5 billion ASX float after weak demand and is exploring a private fundraising of up to $3 billion, renewing questions about investor appetite for AI valuations. Payments and Banking: The ATO will keep accepting credit-card payments until June 2027 after criticism of a proposed ban, while surcharge reforms are prompting businesses to warn of higher costs and creating opportunities for fintechs.

IPO Shock: Nvidia-backed data-centre firm Firmus scrapped its planned $5 billion ASX float after weak investor demand, dealing a blow to Australia’s IPO market; it is exploring private funding instead. Mortgage Squeeze: Falling Melbourne prices are not easing buyer pressure as higher rates cut borrowing power. In Queensland, the income needed to qualify for a typical home loan jumped by about $30,000 in a year, far outpacing wage growth. Rates and Payments: Bendigo Bank expects the cash rate to stay at 4.6% through year-end. Businesses remain wary of the surcharge ban, while the ATO’s decision to accept credit-card payments until June 2027 gives fintechs more time to compete. Market Risks: The RBA has warned that an AI stock correction could weaken household spending, as investors reassess the sector’s high valuations.

Card Costs: Australian businesses say the RBA’s surcharge ban is squeezing margins, with some Sydney operators urging customers to pay cash or setting minimum card spends. The ATO has also delayed its credit-card payment ban until June 2027. Rates: Bendigo Bank expects the cash rate to stay at 4.6% through year-end, keeping pressure on borrowers and investors. IPO Shock: AI data-centre company Firmus scrapped its planned $5 billion ASX float after weak demand and is exploring up to $3 billion in private funding, raising fresh questions about investor appetite for AI valuations. Private Credit: Concerns are growing after a property firm’s collapse, even as Nuveen secured a $700 million first close for an Australian real-estate debt fund. Market Watch: Australian shares rebounded as banks and gold stocks gained, but caution persisted amid rising bond yields and doubts about AI spending.